A Winter for the Bike Industry? Why I Decided Not to Upgrade, and What I'd Tell You to Buy

As soon as winter comes and the weather turns cold, the mood in the riding group chats cools off too. And it's not just us. The whole bike industry seems to be in a deep freeze this winter, with the big brands racing to cut prices and grab market share.

My bike is a 2024 JAVA Auriga that I bought in the summer of 2024. It has a Lantu R5 groupset and an all-aluminum frame, and it weighs a full 12 kg bare. A real muscle bruiser among bikes.

As my riding frequency and distance shot up in 2025, I started thinking about getting a better bike this winter.

By now I've gone through the whole arc: wanting to upgrade, browsing bikes, agonizing, and finally deciding not to. So I want to write down what went through my head.

Why I'm Not Upgrading

1. Why I Wanted To

Simply put, I've ridden my current bike about 8,000 km since buying it. Rather than wanting a different bike, what I really wanted was an upgrade.

So what could be upgraded? I listed them all.

First, lighter. When you upgrade a bike, the main aim is making it lighter, because a lighter bike lets me put out more power as I ride. To get there, I'd need a full carbon fiber bike, including the frame, fork and wheelset.

Second, better shifting. My current groupset is the domestic Lantu R5. In the rankings, this groupset seems to be rated so low that even dogs wouldn't use it, but after more than a year of using it myself, I've had no problems. If I upgraded, I'd buy a Shimano or SRAM groupset. Both are imported and long known for reliability and top performance, and the Grand Tour teams all use those brands.

Third, a better look. A bike is exercise equipment, but it has an aesthetic side too. What you ride out on says something about the owner's taste. Of course, beyond looking good to yourself, the aesthetic side is mostly social.

2. What I Wanted

Once I knew what I wanted to upgrade, I started looking at bikes.

My favorite bike brand is the American brand Cannondale. I like a design that's tough but not without elegance.

But for budget and value reasons, the models I looked at were: Cannondale SuperSix, BMC SLR 01, Specialized Allez, Ruibao Spark Evo and Giant Propel Pro.

I looked at quite a few bikes. Most of them cost under 17,000 yuan complete, whereas in the past almost all of them were close to or over 20,000 yuan.

Starting in winter 2024, as the cycling boom faded and the economy as a whole weakened, bike shops closed one batch after another, and lots of classic models dropped 5,000 to 10,000 yuan from their once sky-high prices.

This is the best picture of the wider climate. The people still thinking about upgrading now are probably people like me who truly love cycling.

Still, even though prices were falling, I figured I shouldn't place an order just because they kept dropping. I should start from my core needs, which is the shopping method I trust most these days.

These bikes haven't gotten cheaper. They've gone back to the price they should have had all along, and maybe even less.

3. Why I'm Not Buying.

In the end I decided not to upgrade.

I started from my core needs in deciding whether to upgrade.

What are my core needs? When I thought about it, I found it hard to answer. I wasn't actually clear on what my core need for a new bike was.

I'm a standard leisure-touring rider. Road cycling is a high-risk sport, so from the moment I started, my first priority has been casual fitness, getting hurt as little as possible.

So as long as a bike rides, everything else is basically social.

My bike has about 8,000 km on it now and has had no problems at all. The brakes are solid, the shifting is fine, and I honestly can't find a single practical reason to replace it.

So my original urge to upgrade mostly came down to looks and social signaling: the bike as a symbol of my taste, and the plain fact of liking how it looks.

When I first bought my bike, I thought it looked great. Now I don't think it looks quite as good as it did then, but it isn't ugly either.

As for the taste symbol part, in these two years of riding, I've gotten to know a group of fairly close friends, and I don't think I care what I ride in front of them. It's even more true for everyone else.

That might be a stretch, but it makes complete sense to me.

And from all this thinking, I can say for sure I was fooled by a fake need.

Here are the three questions I use to look at the idea of replacing a bike:

1. Is it necessary to buy or replace?

My current bike has no functional problems at all. On necessity alone, there's really no need.

2. What is my core need for a bike?

My main need for a bike is really good brakes, brakes that actually stop me. My bike has a hydraulic disc brake system, which has always been what I'm happiest with. More than once, the excellent performance of hydraulic discs has saved me from an accident. So my core need is fully met right now, and the social side is purely a fake need.

3. What's my budget?

Given the two answers above, there's no point talking budget now, because I don't need to replace it at all.

So that's my journey from wanting a new bike to deciding against it. Maybe I'll upgrade next year, but right now it's unlikely.

What I'd Recommend You Buy

I decided not to buy in the end, but you, reading this, may be thinking of upgrading.

Either way, I'd like to give you a few suggestions.

If you're torn, I first hope you'll ask yourself the three questions above and see whether you really need a new bike at all.

If you do want to buy, I have two suggestions.

First, buy a road bike with hydraulic disc brakes if you can. I haven't used a rim-brake road bike for long, but I've proven the excellent performance of hydraulic discs in practice. They're absolutely safe, reliable and useful.

Second, buy from a big brand. How do you define a big brand? Watch the Tour de France. Any brand that shows up at the Tour is what we call a Grand Tour brand. The ones we know include Xds and Giant, and also Trek, Specialized, Pinarello, Cannondale and others.

I don't need to say much about why big brands are better.

One last thing: whatever you decide, I hope you end up with a bike you love. It's one of the things that gets you out the door on it.

But please don't get lost in the bike's specs and forget why you started.

If you want to know more, you can read my other post:

The three questions in it work for most things you might buy.

Finally, ride safe.